Redefining Progress: The Quest for Broad-Based Prosperity
In an era marked by dazzling technological advancements and unparalleled wealth creation, why do so many feel a growing sense of unease and dissatisfaction? As Eli Dourado, chief economist at the Abundance Institute, observes, our modern civilization faces a perilous balancing act between the promise of abundance and the looming specter of collapse.
Dourado’s journey has been shaped by a lifetime of diverse experiences, from his childhood spent traversing the globe as the son of a Brazilian-American family, to his academic pursuits in economics and policy, and his roles shaping the trajectory of emerging technologies. This unique vantage point has informed his growing conviction that the key to unlocking widespread human flourishing lies not solely in the realm of scientific breakthroughs, but in our ability to navigate the complex social and institutional factors that ultimately determine whether innovation yields tangible benefits for all.
The Productivity Puzzle: Unraveling the Great Stagnation
At the heart of Dourado’s work lies a deep dive into the productivity growth slowdown that has plagued advanced economies for decades. This “Great Stagnation,” as it has been dubbed, has seen a marked deceleration in the pace of technological progress and its translation into measurable economic gains. Dourado notes that the problem extends well beyond the walls of R&D labs, with the real bottlenecks often found in the broader social and institutional landscape.
“If we just take a look at it through that lens, and we say, ‘Okay, we’re struggling in all of these different industries, we’re struggling in health, we’re struggling in housing, we’re struggling in energy deployment, we’re struggling in transportation infrastructure, and we’re also struggling in science,’ I think that many of the pathologies in science actually are the same as in those other industries,” Dourado observes.
Indeed, the ability to transform promising ideas into scaled, life-changing innovations is often hampered by a web of regulatory constraints, bureaucratic inertia, and cultural resistance to change. Dourado cites the example of telemedicine, which saw a dramatic surge in adoption during the COVID-19 pandemic, only to face renewed restrictions once the crisis had passed. Such patterns of “supply-side sclerosis” suggest that the challenge of reviving productivity growth may lie as much in addressing systemic social and institutional barriers as it does in the pursuit of new scientific breakthroughs.
The Specter of Civilizational Collapse
Dourado’s exploration of the “Great Stagnation” has led him to grapple with an even more unsettling possibility: the vulnerability of our modern, technologically advanced civilization to the risk of collapse. Drawing inspiration from the work of anthropologist Joseph Tainter, Dourado has delved into the factors that have historically contributed to the downfall of complex societies, from the Roman Empire to contemporary nation-states.
Tainter’s analysis of “declining marginal returns to social complexity” resonates deeply with Dourado’s observations of the growing dysfunction and sclerosis that plague our own social, political, and economic institutions. As societies invest ever-increasing resources into maintaining their organizational complexity, they become more susceptible to shocks and less able to adapt to new challenges.
“If we had a crisis that necessitated a level of national cohesiveness in our response, we just don’t have that anymore,” Dourado warns. “And it may not overwhelm us technologically, but we just won’t do it, we just won’t respond, is the problem.”
The risk, Dourado argues, is that a persistent erosion of shared prosperity, coupled with a growing cynicism and apathy among the populace, could ultimately undermine the social fabric and willingness to confront new threats, whether they be environmental, technological, or geopolitical in nature. The movie “Don’t Look Up,” with its parable about cultural self-blindness in the face of an impending catastrophe, serves as a chilling cautionary tale.
Abundance as the Antidote to Collapse
Confronted with these sobering realities, Dourado has come to view the pursuit of “abundance” as a critical counterbalance to the forces of decline. By abundance, he means a concerted effort to remove artificial constraints on supply, improve the quality of government, and unleash the full potential of technological progress to deliver widespread improvements in human well-being.
“If we actually were delivering more broad-based human flourishing to the entire income distribution, including the bottom half of the distribution, then maybe this populism wouldn’t be so bad, maybe it wouldn’t be so dangerous, maybe we would be more stable,” Dourado asserts.
At the heart of this abundance agenda is a recognition that the challenges facing modern civilization are not solely technical in nature, but rather deeply rooted in social, institutional, and cultural dynamics. Dourado envisions a future where policymakers, innovators, and citizens work in concert to dismantle the barriers that have stifled progress, from restrictive land use regulations to overly complex regulatory frameworks.
By fostering an environment that encourages the rapid deployment and iteration of new technologies, while also ensuring that the benefits of innovation are broadly shared, Dourado believes we can reignite a sense of shared purpose and collective investment in the future – a critical antidote to the forces of collapse.
Realigning Incentives, Reviving Shared Prosperity
Achieving this vision, however, will require a fundamental realignment of societal incentives and priorities. Dourado points to worrying trends, such as the declining birth rates and growing insularity of modern life, as symptomatic of a culture that has become increasingly detached from the physical world and the shared struggle to solve tangible problems.
“We’re now so insulated, that our economic job is not problems in the physical world, but problems with other people,” Lindsey observes. “And our ultimate problems are problems inside our own heads.”
Reversing this dynamic will demand a renewed emphasis on cultivating a sense of collective purpose, where individuals are motivated to contribute to the greater good, rather than solely pursuing their own relative status or consumption-driven goals. Dourado sees the education system as a key lever in this process, arguing that we must strive to instill a genuine curiosity and commitment to learning, rather than nurturing cynicism and disengagement.
The Bicycle Theory of Civilization
Ultimately, Dourado and his collaborators at the Abundance Institute believe that the choice facing modern civilization is a stark one: abundance or collapse. Just as a bicycle must maintain forward momentum to remain upright, so too must societies constantly strive to advance, lest they fall into a morass of stagnation and vulnerability.
“If we go some period of time, where it doesn’t look like progress is possible, I think if there aren’t people with living memories of it, that dies,” Lindsey warns. “So we really are, if it’s not abundance or collapse, it is abundance, or a very ugly kind of stagnation, with ever present vulnerability to an unhappy ending.”
Dourado’s work, then, represents a clarion call to action, urging policymakers, innovators, and citizens alike to rededicate themselves to the sacred quest of increasing the rate of economic growth and social progress. By tackling the institutional and cultural barriers that have impeded past efforts, he believes we can reclaim the promise of a future defined by shared prosperity and resilience in the face of emerging challenges.
The path forward may not be easy, but the stakes have never been higher. As Dourado and his allies at the Abundance Institute work tirelessly to chart a course towards a brighter tomorrow, the rest of us would do well to heed their warnings and join them in this vital endeavor.
Unlocking the Potential of Emerging Technologies
While Dourado’s analysis paints a sobering portrait of our current predicament, he remains optimistic about the transformative potential of emerging technologies – provided we can overcome the institutional and cultural obstacles that have historically constrained their impact.
One area of particular promise, Dourado notes, is the field of healthcare. The COVID-19 pandemic, for example, catalyzed a sudden surge in the adoption of telemedicine, offering a glimpse of how technology could dramatically improve the accessibility and efficiency of healthcare delivery. Yet, as Dourado observes, the gains were quickly eroded as regulatory barriers were reinstated, prioritizing the interests of entrenched providers over the needs of patients.
“We could replace a lot of doctors with AI doctors,” Dourado contends. “We could reduce the burden of paperwork on doctors. The question is, will we do these things?”
Similarly, Dourado sees significant potential in the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to accelerate the pace of scientific discovery and innovation. However, he cautions that the true transformative power of these technologies will only be realized if we can overcome the institutional inertia and vested interests that have historically stifled progress.
Cultivating a Culture of Abundance
At the heart of Dourado’s vision for the future is a fundamental shift in the cultural narratives and incentive structures that shape modern society. He argues that we must move beyond a zero-sum mentality, where different groups jockey for relative advantage, and instead embrace a positive-sum mindset that prioritizes the collective wellbeing of all.
“If everybody had a zero-sum attitude, we’d be back to subsistence, I think, at some point,” Dourado warns. “It might not be the exact Tainter story, but you don’t keep growing when everybody has a zero-sum attitude.”
To achieve this cultural transformation, Dourado believes we must rethink the way we educate and socialize the next generation. Rather than nurturing cynicism and disengagement, he argues, we must instill a genuine sense of curiosity, problem-solving acumen, and commitment to the greater good.
“We’re running a state-run program to make people more cynical, and less interested, in learning, and in the world, and in achieving something,” Dourado laments. “It’s a real stain on our civilization.”
By reorienting our social institutions to foster a culture of abundance, Dourado and his colleagues at the Abundance Institute believe we can rekindle the sense of shared purpose and collective investment in the future that has fueled previous eras of rapid progress and social transformation.
Conclusion: A Call to Arms for a New Era of Abundance
As the 21st century unfolds, Eli Dourado and the Abundance Institute stand as beacons of hope in a world that often seems mired in stagnation and vulnerability. Their clarion call to action challenges us to rethink the fundamental assumptions and structures that have constrained our ability to unlock the full potential of human ingenuity and technological progress.
Whether through the dismantling of regulatory barriers, the realignment of incentives to prioritize broad-based prosperity, or the cultivation of a culture that champions collective problem-solving, the abundance agenda represents a vital counterweight to the forces of collapse. By embracing this vision, we can not only revive the spirit of optimism and shared purpose that has carried us through previous eras of rapid advancement, but also ensure the long-term resilience and flourishing of our modern civilization.
The path forward may be fraught with obstacles, but Dourado and his allies refuse to be daunted. Their work serves as a rallying cry for all who believe in the transformative power of human creativity and the boundless potential of a future defined by abundance, rather than scarcity and decline.
As we navigate the challenges of our time, let us take inspiration from Dourado’s unwavering commitment to this sacred quest. For in the pursuit of abundance lies not only the promise of a better tomorrow, but the very survival of our shared civilization.
